Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling Pipeline
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F23%3A00575014" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/23:00575014 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/00216208:11320/23:10477702
Result on the web
<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022SW003377" target="_blank" >https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022SW003377</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003377" target="_blank" >10.1029/2022SW003377</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling Pipeline
Original language description
The H2020 SafeSpace project aims at the implementation of a space weather safety prototype, in particular to predict the deep charging hazard. The proposed service is built on a Sun-to-Earth chain of physical codes that propagates physical information and uncertainties in order to model the outer radiation belt dynamics. In this paper, we present the inner magnetosphere section of the SafeSpace pipeline that relies on solar wind driven and hourly updated models that describe the trapped electron environment (VLF waves, cold plasma and seed population densities), as well as the physical processes to which the trapped electrons are subjected to, such as radial diffusion and wave particle interactions. Then, this physical configuration is poured into the Salammbo-EnKF model, a data assimilation radiation belt model which provides a global forecast of the densities across the radiation belts. We have compared the forecasting performance of this new modeling pipeline to a reference model during the St. Patrick's Day storm in 2015. We show that the new SafeSpace implementation shows closer results to the observations in addition to a better forecast within the prediction horizon.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10305 - Fluids and plasma physics (including surface physics)
Result continuities
Project
—
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2023
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Space Weather-the International Journal of Research and Applications
ISSN
1542-7390
e-ISSN
1542-7390
Volume of the periodical
21
Issue of the periodical within the volume
8
Country of publishing house
US - UNITED STATES
Number of pages
21
Pages from-to
e2022SW003377
UT code for WoS article
001050616300001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85168526994