Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F23%3A00576916" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/23:00576916 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/60460709:41330/23:97582

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/383/bmj-2023-075081" target="_blank" >https://www.bmj.com/content/383/bmj-2023-075081</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-075081" target="_blank" >10.1136/bmj-2023-075081</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study

Original language description

Objective: To evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale. Design: Time series study. Setting: 761 communities in 35 countries or territories with at least one flood event during the study period. Participants: Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network database, Australian Cause of Death Unit Record File, New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure, and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network database. Main outcome measures: The main outcome was daily counts of deaths. An estimation for the lag-response association between flood and daily mortality risk was modelled, and the relative risks over the lag period were cumulated to calculate overall effects. Attributable fractions of mortality due to floods were further calculated. A quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear function was used to examine how daily death risk was associated with flooded days in each community, and then the community specific associations were pooled using random effects multivariate meta-analyses. Flooded days were defined as days from the start date to the end date of flood events. Results: A total of 47.6 million all cause deaths, 11.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths were analysed. Over the 761 communities, mortality risks increased and persisted for up to 60 days (50 days for cardiovascular mortality) after a flooded day. The cumulative relative risks for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 1.021 (95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.036), 1.026 (1.005 to 1.047), and 1.049 (1.008 to 1.092), respectively. The associations varied across countries or territories and regions. The flood-mortality associations appeared to be modified by climate type and were stronger in low income countries and in populations with a low human development index or high proportion of older people. In communities impacted by flood, up to 0.10% of all cause deaths, 0.18% of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.41% of respiratory deaths were attributed to floods. Conclusions: This study found that the risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality increased for up to 60 days after exposure to flood and the associations could vary by local climate type, socioeconomic status, and older age.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

British Medical Journal

ISSN

0959-535X

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

383

Issue of the periodical within the volume

Oct

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

10

Pages from-to

e075081

UT code for WoS article

001102353800002

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85174352727