Future Changes in Day-to-Day Precipitation Variability in Europe

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F24%3A00587882" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/24:00587882 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/86652079:_____/24:00598067
Result on the web
<a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/aop/JHM-D-23-0206.1/JHM-D-23-0206.1.xml" target="_blank" >https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/aop/JHM-D-23-0206.1/JHM-D-23-0206.1.xml</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-23-0206.1" target="_blank" >10.1175/JHM-D-23-0206.1</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Future Changes in Day-to-Day Precipitation Variability in Europe
Original language description
We analyzed regional patterns of day-to-day precipitation variability across Europe and assessed their future changes using CORDEX regional climate models. A discrete Markov chain process was employed to calculate transition probabilities from wet and dry states and the precipitation variability was quantified using the proposed Variability index (IVAR, sum of wet-to-dry and dry-to-wet transitions divided by total number of transitions). IVAR is, in general, lowest in Southern Europe and gradually increases northward in the observed data. Performance of the regional climate models is season dependent: they capture IVAR reasonably well in summer but higher simulated variability was found for the winter season. IVAR trends computed for the 2006–2095 period suggest decreasing day-to-day precipitation variability over Southern Europe, especially in summer under the high-concentration RCP8.5 pathway. By contrast, increased variability is projected in Northern Europe. Between these two regions, future IVAR trends are less clear, because they strongly depend on the selection of driving global model, hinting of an uncertain future hydroclimate in the Central European region.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
—
OECD FORD branch
10510 - Climatic research

Project
<a href="/en/project/GA21-07954S" target="_blank" >GA21-07954S: Varying atmospheric variability</a><br>
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2024
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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