Global Excess Deaths Associated with Heatwaves in 2023 and the Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F25%3A00638803" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/25:00638803 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/60460709:41330/25:106335
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666675825003133" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666675825003133</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Global Excess Deaths Associated with Heatwaves in 2023 and the Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change
Original language description
An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it as one of the hottest years on record, raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by combining high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries with a three-stage modelling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5°×0.5°) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical Confidence Interval [eCI]: 159,892−204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120,95% eCI: 116−126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI: 100−114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI: 62−70). The excess death ratio was also higher in these regions. Notably, 54.29% (95% eCI: 45.71−61.36%) of these deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to mitigate future mortality burdens under increasing global warming.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10510 - Climatic research
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
The Innovation
ISSN
2666-6758
e-ISSN
2666-6758
Volume of the periodical
6
Issue of the periodical within the volume
10
Country of publishing house
US - UNITED STATES
Number of pages
7
Pages from-to
101110
UT code for WoS article
001594110900002
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-105017659374