The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F25%3A00643829" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/25:00643829 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775" target="_blank" >https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775" target="_blank" >10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe

Original language description

Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results. The objective of this study is to systematically assess the effectiveness of HPPs in reducing heat-related mortality risk across Europe. We analysed daily mortality and mean temperature data from 102 locations in 14 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Using data from national experts, we identified the year of HPP implementation and categorised their development class. A three-stage analysis was conducted: (1) quasi-Poisson time series models were used to estimate location-specific warm-season exposure-response functions in 3 year subperiods, (2) mixed-effect meta-regression models with multilevel longitudinal structures were employed to quantify changes in pooled exposure-response functions due to HPP implementation, adjusted for long-term trends in heat-related mortality risks, and (3) the heat-related excess mortality due to HPP was calculated by comparing factual (with HPP) and counterfactual (without HPP) scenarios. Estimates are reported by country, region, and HPP class. HPP implementation was associated with a 25.2% [95% CI: 19.8% to 31.9%] reduction in excess deaths attributable to extreme heat, corresponding to 1.8 [95% CI: 1.3-2.4] avoided deaths annually per 100 000 inhabitants. This equates to an estimated 14 551 [95% CI: 10 118-19 072] total deaths avoided across all study locations following HPP implementation. No significant differences in HPP effectiveness were observed by European region or HPP class. Our findings provide robust evidence that HPPs substantially reduce heat-related mortality across Europe, accounting for temporal changes and geographical differences in risks. These results emphasise the importance of monitoring and evaluating HPPs to enhance adaptation to a warming climate.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10510 - Climatic research

Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Environmental Research Letters

ISSN

1748-9326

e-ISSN

1748-9326

Volume of the periodical

20

Issue of the periodical within the volume

12

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

124071

UT code for WoS article

001645551400001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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