Forty years of score-based soccer match outcome prediction: an experimental review

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68407700%3A21230%2F22%3A00350972" target="_blank" >RIV/68407700:21230/22:00350972 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpab029" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpab029</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpab029" target="_blank" >10.1093/imaman/dpab029</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Forty years of score-based soccer match outcome prediction: an experimental review
Original language description
We investigate the state-of-the-art in score-based soccer match outcome modelling to identify the top-performing methods across diverse classes of existing approaches to the problem. Namely, we bring together various statistical methods based on Poisson and Weibull distributions and several general ranking algorithms (Elo, Steph ratings, Gaussian-OD ratings) as well as domain-specific rating systems (Berrar ratings, pi-ratings). We review, reimplement and experimentally compare these diverse competitors altogether on the largest database of soccer results available to identify true leaders. Our results reveal that the individual predictions, as well as the overall performances, are very similar across the top models tested, likely suggesting the limits of this generic approach to score-based match outcome modelling. No study of a similar scale has previously been done.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Project
<a href="/en/project/GA20-29260S" target="_blank" >GA20-29260S: End-to-end learning of optimal portfolios</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2022
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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