Air Cargo Demand Prediction on Selected Routes by Holt-Winter Algorithm

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68407700%3A21260%2F22%3A00362088" target="_blank" >RIV/68407700:21260/22:00362088 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.23919/NTCA55899.2022.9934392" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.23919/NTCA55899.2022.9934392</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.23919/NTCA55899.2022.9934392" target="_blank" >10.23919/NTCA55899.2022.9934392</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Air Cargo Demand Prediction on Selected Routes by Holt-Winter Algorithm
Original language description
Freight transported by air plays an important role in world economics. The covid pandemic had an unprecedently negative impact on passenger air transport, but air cargo maintained its performance. We could even see significant increase in some markets. Due to the increased demand for freight, the airlines had to deal with a shortage of capacity. This situation showed us, the importance of planning and optimizing the cargo fleet. One of the input factors for decision-making is the development of demand. This research was focused on the prediction of the air cargo demand on five routes: two within Europe, two Europe-Asia, and one Europe-N. America. The main source of data was the Eurostat database (data by months 1/2015-12/2020). Metric used was the weight of freight loaded and unloaded between selected cities in tonnes. Statistical significance of the data was assessed using linear and quadratic regression analysis. The prediction was performed using the Holt-Winter algorithm (1/2021-4/2022). One of the selected routes proved to be very demanding in terms of increasing traffic. The rest of the routes showed less increase in volume of air cargo transport. Validation of the method/prediction was performed by evaluating real data for the same period.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2022
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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