Statistical, Quantitative Probability and Nowcasting Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Storms

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F70883521%3A28140%2F18%3A63520345" target="_blank" >RIV/70883521:28140/18:63520345 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Statistical, Quantitative Probability and Nowcasting Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Storms

Original language description

This paper deals with the comparison of the statistical, quantitative and nowcasting method of prediction of convective precipitation and the risk of flood floods, which are the main outputs calculated by the Algorithm of Storm Prediction. The evaluation of the success of these outputs was carried out on the basis of verified 63 thunderstorms and three floods that affected the Zlín Region between 2015 and 2017. The first part of the article focuses on the description and evaluation of the predictive outputs of the quantitative prediction of the probability of the occurrence and the intensity of convective precipitation computed from NWP models. At the same time, these outcomes are compared with the outputs of the statistical and nowcasting predictions of convective precipitation. The statistical prediction of convective precipitation is calculated on the selection of the predicted and historical situation from the statistics database. The nowcasting prediction works with the outputs of the MMR50 X-band meteorological radar of the Zlín Region. The second part explores the use of track storms for statistical prediction, which is intended as an indicative and complementary forecast for the method of quantitative prediction of precipitation. The conclusion of the two chapters is a comparison of the success of the predicted outputs of methods, which can be used and put into practice in particular for the prediction of convective precipitation and the risk of floods for purposes of warning and meteorological services and crisis management.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_ost - Miscellaneous article in a specialist periodical

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Project

<a href="/en/project/LO1303" target="_blank" >LO1303: Promoting sustainability and development of the Centre for Security, Information and Advanced Technologies (CEBIA-Tech)</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development

ISSN

1790-5079

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

Volume 14

Issue of the periodical within the volume

neuveden

Country of publishing house

GR - GREECE

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

607-618

UT code for WoS article

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EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85061254350