Estimating the baseline and threshold for the incidence of diseases with seasonal and long-term trends

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F75010330%3A_____%2F15%3A00011084" target="_blank" >RIV/75010330:_____/15:00011084 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://apps.szu.cz/svi/cejph/show_en.php?kat=archiv/2015-4-12" target="_blank" >http://apps.szu.cz/svi/cejph/show_en.php?kat=archiv/2015-4-12</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a4392" target="_blank" >10.21101/cejph.a4392</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Estimating the baseline and threshold for the incidence of diseases with seasonal and long-term trends

Original language description

In epidemiology, it is very important to estimate the baseline incidence of infectious diseases. From this baseline, the epidemic threshold can be derived as a clue to recognize an excess incidence, i.e. to detect an epidemic by mathematical methods. Nevertheless, a problem is posed by the fact that the incidence may vary during the year, as a rule, in a season dependent manner. To model the incidence of a disease, some authors use seasonal trend models. For instance, Serfling applies the sine function with a phase shift and amplitude. A similar model based on the analysis of variance with kernel smoothing and Serflingĺs higher order models, i.e. models composed of multiple sine-cosine function pairs with a variably long period, will be presented below. Serflingĺs model uses a long-term linear trend, but the linearity may not be always acceptable. Therefore, a more complex, long-term trend estimation will also be addressed, using different smoothing methods. In addition, the issue of the time unit (mostly a week) used in describing the incidence is discussed.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

FN - Epidemiology, infection diseases and clinical immunology

OECD FORD branch

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Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2015

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Central European Journal of Public Health

ISSN

1210-7778

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

23

Issue of the periodical within the volume

4

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

8

Pages from-to

352-359

UT code for WoS article

000370311200012

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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