European summer temperatures since Roman times

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F16%3A00473264" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/16:00473264 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/00216224:14310/16:00087868

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001" target="_blank" >10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

European summer temperatures since Roman times

Original language description

The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

DG - Atmospheric sciences, meteorology

OECD FORD branch

—

Project

<a href="/en/project/GA13-04291S" target="_blank" >GA13-04291S: Spring-summer hydroclimate reconstruction of the past millennium for the Czech Republic using oak standard chronology</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2016

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Environmental Research Letters

ISSN

1748-9326

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

11

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

—

UT code for WoS article

000371488300003

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-84959421909