Prediction of Land-Use Development Under Influence of Climate Change

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F18%3A00481289" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/18:00481289 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61297-3_25" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61297-3_25</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61297-3_25" target="_blank" >10.1007/978-3-319-61297-3_25</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Prediction of Land-Use Development Under Influence of Climate Change

Original language description

Land-use change is considered one of the most critical processes when attempting to understand and model the global change. Land-use change has an interdependent relationship with the climate change. Climate change in the Czech Republic incurs a substantial pressure on human society and natural ecosystems through the increase of temperature and higher occurrence of droughts and floods. The principal purpose of the study was to model and assess the future land-use distribution in the Czech Republic based on historical land-use data and climate change information. For assessment of future ecosystem services, the current rate of ecosystem service fulfillment is set and compared in time and space with modeled situations. TerrSet’s Land Change Modeller was used to create land-use projection models based on principles of historical trends and business as usual projection scenario. The land-use prediction was performed for the entire Czech Republic using HadGEM2-ES climate model with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The output of the modeling was a set of raster maps which presented the future land coverage for each category and location. A spatio-temporal analysis was then performed to determine the difference in representation of each land cover category for a period 2012–2050. The results show that most severe change in the land cover appears in loss of agricultural sites mainly caused by increase in urban areas and forests. Planners and policymakers can use the results of this study to incorporate adaptation measures including the change of land use to more natural habitats and implementation of more ecological management to mitigate the adverse effect of urbanization and climate change. The contribution of the study is in presenting selected tools for modeling expected future land use and development of maps displaying future spatial distribution and quantification of land use categories for the Czech Republic.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

D - Article in proceedings

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection

Dynamics in GIscience: Conference proceedings

ISBN

978-3-319-61296-6

ISSN

1863-2246

e-ISSN

1863-2351

Number of pages

8

Pages from-to

347-357

Publisher name

Springer

Place of publication

Cham

Event location

Ostrava

Event date

Mar 22, 2017

Type of event by nationality

EUR - Evropská akce

UT code for WoS article

000457178200025