Extending the climatological concept of'Detection and Attribution' to global change ecology in the Anthropocene

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F20%3A00535256" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/20:00535256 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/00216224:14310/20:00117420

Result on the web

<a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.13647" target="_blank" >https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.13647</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13647" target="_blank" >10.1111/1365-2435.13647</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Extending the climatological concept of'Detection and Attribution' to global change ecology in the Anthropocene

Original language description

Research into global change ecology is motivated by the need to understand the role of humans in changing biotic systems. Mechanistic understanding of ecological responses requires the separation of different climatic parameters and processes that often operate on diverse spatiotemporal scales. Yet most environmental studies do not distinguish the effects of internal climate variability from those caused by external, natural (e.g. volcanic, solar, orbital) or anthropogenic (e.g. greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols, land-use) forcing factors. We suggest extending the climatological concept of 'Detection and Attribution' (DA) to unravel abiotic drivers of ecological dynamics in the Anthropocene. We therefore apply DA to quantify the relative roles of natural versus industrial temperature change on elevational shifts in the outbreak epicentres of the larch budmoth (LBM, Zeiraphera dinianaorgriseana Gn.), the classic example of a cyclic forest defoliating insect. Our case study shows that anthropogenic warming shifts the epicentre of travelling LBM waves upward, which disrupts the intensity of population outbreaks that occurred regularly over the past millennium in the European Alps. Our findings demonstrate the ability of DA to detect ecological responses beyond internal system variability, to attribute them to specific external climate forcing factors and to identify climate-induced ecological tipping points. In order to implement the climatological concept of 'Detection and Attribution' successfully into modern global change ecology, future studies should combine high-resolution paleoenvironmental reconstructions and state-of-the-art climate model simulations to inform inference-based ecosystem models. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10618 - Ecology

Project

<a href="/en/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2020

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Functional Ecology

ISSN

0269-8463

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

34

Issue of the periodical within the volume

11

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

2270-2282

UT code for WoS article

000560502200001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85089513766