Creating quantitative scenario projections for the UK shared socioeconomic pathways

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F23%3A00572438" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/23:00572438 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096323000323?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096323000323?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100506" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.crm.2023.100506</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Creating quantitative scenario projections for the UK shared socioeconomic pathways

Original language description

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed as a framework for exploring alternative futures with challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Whilst origi-nally developed at the global scale, the SSPs have been increasingly interpreted at the national scale in order to inform national level climate change policy and impact assessments, including mitigation and adaptation actions. Here, we present a set of quantitative SSP scenario projections, based on narratives and semi-quantitative trends, for the UK (the UK-SSPs) for a wide range of sectors that are relevant to the UK climate research, policy and business communities. We show that a mixed-methods approach that combines computational modelling with an interpretation of stakeholder storylines and empirical data is an effective way of generating a comprehensive range of quantitative indicators across sectors and geographic areas in a specific national context. The global SSP assumptions of low challenges to climate adaptation lead to similar socioeconomic outcomes in UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP5, although based on very different dynamics and underlying drivers. Convergence was also identified in indicators related to more efficient natural resource use in the scenarios with low challenges to climate change mitigation (UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP4). Alternatively, societal inequality played a strong role in scenarios with high challenges to adaptation leading to convergence in indicator trends (UK-SSP3 and UK-SSP4).

Czech name

—

Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

50704 - Environmental sciences (social aspects)

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Climate Risk Management

ISSN

2212-0963

e-ISSN

2212-0963

Volume of the periodical

40

Issue of the periodical within the volume

APR

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

11

Pages from-to

100506

UT code for WoS article

000983180500001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85153503564