Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F23%3A00576664" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/23:00576664 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/9/1740" target="_blank" >https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/9/1740</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13091740" target="_blank" >10.3390/agriculture13091740</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)

Original language description

Climate-induced production risk is expected to increase in the future. This study assesses the effectiveness of adapting crop rotations on arable farms in Brandenburg as a tool to enhance climate resilience. Two risk-minimizing measures are investigated: crop diversification and the inclusion of irrigated crops. Based on state-wide simulated yield data, the study compares two different scenarios. In the first scenario, the most profitable crop rotations based on predicted future weather conditions are chosen for each agro-ecological zone. In the second scenario, cropping plans are derived based on an adaption of the Target MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation) model taking climate-induced risks into account. A comparison of the scenarios shows a high risk reduction effect of diversification, while the economic risk reduction effect of irrigation only increases slightly. The trade-off between the highest possible gross margins and lower possible losses varies depending on the soil and climate conditions. Diversification contributed most to economic resilience in areas with moderate to low agricultural productivity. Subsidies focusing on diversification in less productive areas might be a tool to increase economic resilience with low risk-avoidance costs.

Czech name

—

Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

40101 - Agriculture

Project

<a href="/en/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Agriculture-Basel

ISSN

2077-0472

e-ISSN

2077-0472

Volume of the periodical

13

Issue of the periodical within the volume

9

Country of publishing house

CH - SWITZERLAND

Number of pages

17

Pages from-to

1740

UT code for WoS article

001075893300001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85172137776