Testing the reliability of soil moisture forecast for its use in agriculture

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F24%3A00599414" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/24:00599414 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/62156489:43210/24:43925747 RIV/00020699:_____/24:N0000061

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424004098?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424004098?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109073" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109073</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Testing the reliability of soil moisture forecast for its use in agriculture

Original language description

The increased frequency and intensity of drought events are among the major impacts of climate change in various regions worldwide, including Central Europe. These changes have increased the demand for precise drought monitoring and forecasting tools and their validation. The Czech Drought Monitoring System, which is widely utilized across Central Europe, provides daily soil moisture monitoring and medium-range forecasts using the SoilClim model. The main objective of this study was to describe and evaluate the spatiotemporal reliability of these forecasts. The forecasting performance was evaluated for three variables (relative soil moisture content, soil moisture deficit, and drought intensity) and was evaluated using Pearson's correlation, mean bias error, and mean absolute error. All the statistical analyses were performed on data from the years 2019 to 2021 aggregated at the administrative district level in the Czech Republic. The growing season data were analyzed in detail to assess the forecasting accuracy during spring and summer. Furthermore, the ability to forecast rapid changes in the soil moisture content according to changes in meteorological variables, such as precipitation and air temperature, was evaluated. Our findings demonstrate that the SoilClim model forecasts are accurate and suitable for practical applications in sectors such as agriculture and forestry. The lowest reported correlation between the monitored and forecasted values was +0.68 for nine-day forecasts at a soil depth of 0-40 cm. For shorter forecast periods of one and four days, the correlation values were +0.80 or greater. For drought intensity, the errors did not exceed one category of drought severity. We identified summer as the most dynamic season, with corresponding variations in the soil moisture and meteorological forecasting accuracy. This study validates the ability of the Czech Drought Monitoring System to provide reliable soil moisture forecasts, thus contributing to our ability to manage and mitigate drought impacts effectively.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

40101 - Agriculture

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Agricultural Water Management

ISSN

0378-3774

e-ISSN

1873-2283

Volume of the periodical

304

Issue of the periodical within the volume

NOV

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

20

Pages from-to

109073

UT code for WoS article

001328138100001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85205029487