Adjusting the significance of daily climate responses in tree-ring proxies
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F24%3A00601663" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/24:00601663 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11676-024-01799-3" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11676-024-01799-3</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11676-024-01799-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s11676-024-01799-3</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Adjusting the significance of daily climate responses in tree-ring proxies
Original language description
Correlating tree-ring parameters with daily resolved climate data is becoming increasingly common for understanding the complex relationships between tree growth and the surrounding environment. However, with an increased number of calculated correlations, there is an inherent risk of spurious significance. In this study, we present an analysis using synthetic weather and tree-ring data mimicking the statistical properties of ten real-world sites across Europe to quantify the extent to which numerous comparisons may inflate maximum correlations. Comparisons of different tree-ring proxies, considering varying overlapping period lengths and seasons, revealed 95th percentile correlation differences reaching 0.25 by chance. Using synthetic tree-ring chronologies with an assigned non-signal (r = 0.00), spurious correlations can reach statistical significance in over 60% of tests. Correlation inflation is greater when: (1) the climate-proxy relationship is weaker, (2) comparison periods are shorter, and (3) the length of seasonal windows is longer. Autocorrelation in the proxy records does not appear to have a major effect. These findings indicate that caution should be exercised when computing high numbers of correlations with limited observations. We provide tables listing correlation inflations for precipitation- and temperature-sensitive tree-ring chronologies that can inform interpretations of significance.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
40102 - Forestry
Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/EH22_008%2F0004635" target="_blank" >EH22_008/0004635: AdAgriF - Advanced methods of greenhouse gases emission reduction and sequestration in agriculture and forest landscape for climate change mitigation</a><br>
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2024
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Journal of Forestry Research
ISSN
1007-662X
e-ISSN
1993-0607
Volume of the periodical
36
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1
Country of publishing house
CN - CHINA
Number of pages
16
Pages from-to
3
UT code for WoS article
001354138700002
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85208712309