The Projected Changes in the Surface Energy Budget of the CMIP5 and EURO-CORDEX Models: Are We Heading toward Wetter Growing Seasons in Central Europe?

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F25%3A00619487" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/25:00619487 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/62156489:43210/25:43926897

Result on the web

<a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/26/4/JHM-D-24-0017.1.xml" target="_blank" >https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/26/4/JHM-D-24-0017.1.xml</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-24-0017.1" target="_blank" >10.1175/JHM-D-24-0017.1</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

The Projected Changes in the Surface Energy Budget of the CMIP5 and EURO-CORDEX Models: Are We Heading toward Wetter Growing Seasons in Central Europe?

Original language description

We analyze the surface energy budget from four climate model ensembles and its future changes in the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 or shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario. High-resolution European domain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving CMIP5 global climate models (CMIP5-D) are first tested in central Europe against observational datasets. Evaluation reveals the added value of RCMs in terms of spatial variability and smaller biases. CMIP5-D are affected by the positive bias of global irradiance that propagates into other radiation and heat fluxes. There are strong differences in the projected surface energy budget components between RCMs and CMIP5-D. There is an increase in global irradiance for most of the year in CMIP5-D and other GCM ensembles that is translated into a year-round enhancement of the absorbed solar energy and balanced by higher latent heat flux, except in summer, when the sensible heat flux rises strongly. Together with strong warming and reduced precipitation in summer, this leads to warm, sunny, and dry conditions with reduced evapotranspiration and higher drought stress for vegetation. In the RCMs, the reduction in global irradiance dominates, and it is translated into a round-year reduction in the net balance of longwave radiation and stronger latent heat flux. The first months of the growing season show weaker warming associated with higher evapotranspiration and precipitation. In summer, precipitation drops and global irradiance and warming rise, but they fall behind the changes in the GCMs. Compared to GCMs, there are less visible signs of conditions leading to a reduction in evapotranspiration or a shortage of soil water in the RCMs in summer.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Journal of Hydrometeorology

ISSN

1525-755X

e-ISSN

1525-7541

Volume of the periodical

26

Issue of the periodical within the volume

4

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

18

Pages from-to

481-499

UT code for WoS article

001472476700001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-105004359216