Why is there so much variability in crop multi-model studies?
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F25%3A00637974" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/25:00637974 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016819232500317X" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016819232500317X</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110697" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110697</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Why is there so much variability in crop multi-model studies?
Original language description
It has become common to compare crop model results in multi-model simulation experiments. In general, one observes a large variability in such studies, which reduces the confidence one can have in such models. It is important to understand the causes of this variability as a first step toward reducing it. For a given data set, the variability in a multi-model study can arise from uncertainty in model structure or in parameter values for a given structure. Previous studies have made assumptions about the origin of parameter uncertainty, and then quantified its contribution, generally finding that parameter uncertainty is less important than structure uncertainty. However, those studies do not take account of the full parameter variability in multi-model studies. nHere we propose estimating parameter uncertainty based on open-call multi-model ensembles where the same structure is used by more than one modeling group. The variability in such a case is due to the full variability of parameters among modeling groups. Then structure and parameter contributions can be estimated using random effects analysis of variance. Based on three multi-model studies for simulating wheat phenology, it is found that the contribution of parameter uncertainty to total uncertainty is, on average, more than twice as large as the nuncertainty from structure. A second estimate, based on a comparison of two different calibration approaches for multiple models leads to a very similar result. We conclude that improvement of crop models requires as much attention to parameters as to model structure.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
—
OECD FORD branch
40102 - Forestry
Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions</a><br>
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
ISSN
0168-1923
e-ISSN
1873-2240
Volume of the periodical
372
Issue of the periodical within the volume
Sep.
Country of publishing house
NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Number of pages
9
Pages from-to
110697
UT code for WoS article
001529249400001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-105009936944