Future uncertainty in scenarios of ecosystem services provision: Linking differences among narratives and outcomes

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F18%3A00496521" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/18:00496521 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Future uncertainty in scenarios of ecosystem services provision: Linking differences among narratives and outcomes

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Future provision of ecosystem services (ES) has been increasingly analysed through the scenario approach to address uncertainties and to communicate them to stakeholders and decision-makers. Multiple uncertainty-related aspects of the scenario approach have been discussed in the literature, e.g. how uncertainty is accounted for in ES modelling processes. However, this contribution aims to address another uncertainty-related aspect of scenario analysis, exploring the relationship between the diversity of qualitative scenario narratives on the one hand and the diversity of their respective quantitative outcomes on the other. We build on a local-scale case study and present a semi-quantitative approach to compare scenario narratives and outcomes, based on participatory scenario planning and ES modelling. Our results show that different scenario narratives may lead to similar levels of modelled ES provision, and vice versa, that similar narratives may result in contrasting scenario outcomes. We use these findings to derive uncertainty-related insights, and discuss how these can help formulate landscape management decisions, resulting in desirable ES outcomes across a range of plausible futures. Finally, we discuss the need to apply both spatial and aspatial approaches to compare the convergence of scenario outcomes, and the implications for potential interpretation of the results by stakeholders and decision-makers.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Future uncertainty in scenarios of ecosystem services provision: Linking differences among narratives and outcomes

Popis výsledku anglicky

Future provision of ecosystem services (ES) has been increasingly analysed through the scenario approach to address uncertainties and to communicate them to stakeholders and decision-makers. Multiple uncertainty-related aspects of the scenario approach have been discussed in the literature, e.g. how uncertainty is accounted for in ES modelling processes. However, this contribution aims to address another uncertainty-related aspect of scenario analysis, exploring the relationship between the diversity of qualitative scenario narratives on the one hand and the diversity of their respective quantitative outcomes on the other. We build on a local-scale case study and present a semi-quantitative approach to compare scenario narratives and outcomes, based on participatory scenario planning and ES modelling. Our results show that different scenario narratives may lead to similar levels of modelled ES provision, and vice versa, that similar narratives may result in contrasting scenario outcomes. We use these findings to derive uncertainty-related insights, and discuss how these can help formulate landscape management decisions, resulting in desirable ES outcomes across a range of plausible futures. Finally, we discuss the need to apply both spatial and aspatial approaches to compare the convergence of scenario outcomes, and the implications for potential interpretation of the results by stakeholders and decision-makers.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Ecosystem services

ISSN

2212-0416

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

33

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

SI

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

134-145

Kód UT WoS článku

000446521600004

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85048862092