The futility of long-term predictions in bipolar disorder: mood fluctuations are the result of deterministic chaotic processes

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00023752%3A_____%2F21%3A43920768" target="_blank" >RIV/00023752:_____/21:43920768 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://journalbipolardisorders.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40345-021-00235-3" target="_blank" >https://journalbipolardisorders.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40345-021-00235-3</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40345-021-00235-3" target="_blank" >10.1186/s40345-021-00235-3</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

The futility of long-term predictions in bipolar disorder: mood fluctuations are the result of deterministic chaotic processes

Original language description

Background: Understanding the underlying architecture of mood regulation in bipolar disorder (BD) is important, as we are starting to conceptualize BD as a more complex disorder than one of recurring manic or depressive episodes. Nonlinear techniques are employed to understand and model the behavior of complex systems. Our aim was to assess the underlying nonlinear properties that account for mood and energy fluctuations in patients with BD; and to compare whether these processes were different in healthy controls (HC) and unaffected first-degree relatives (FDR). We used three different nonlinear techniques: Lyapunov exponent, detrended fluctuation analysis and fractal dimension to assess the underlying behavior of mood and energy fluctuations in all groups; and subsequently to assess whether these arise from different processes in each of these groups. Results: There was a positive, short-term autocorrelation for both mood and energy series in all three groups. In the mood series, the largest Lyapunov exponent was found in HC (1.84), compared to BD (1.63) and FDR (1.71) groups [F (2, 87) = 8.42, p &lt; 0.005]. A post-hoc Tukey test showed that Lyapunov exponent in HC was significantly higher than both the BD (p = 0.003) and FDR groups (p = 0.03). Similarly, in the energy series, the largest Lyapunov exponent was found in HC (1.85), compared to BD (1.76) and FDR (1.67) [F (2, 87) = 11.02; p &lt; 0.005]. There were no significant differences between groups for the detrended fluctuation analysis or fractal dimension. Conclusions: The underlying nature of mood variability is in keeping with that of a chaotic system, which means that fluctuations are generated by deterministic nonlinear process(es) in HC, BD, and FDR. The value of this complex modeling lies in analyzing the nature of the processes involved in mood regulation. It also suggests that the window for episode prediction in BD will be inevitably short.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

30215 - Psychiatry

Project

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Continuities

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Publication year

2021

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

International Journal of Bipolar Disorders

ISSN

2194-7511

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

9

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

7

Pages from-to

"Article Number: 30"

UT code for WoS article

000702654200001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85116135260