Machine learning for predictive mapping of exceedance probabilities for potentially toxic elements in Czech farmland

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00027049%3A_____%2F25%3AN0000048" target="_blank" >RIV/00027049:_____/25:N0000048 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/00027049:_____/25:N0000049

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301479725010114" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301479725010114</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125035" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125035</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Machine learning for predictive mapping of exceedance probabilities for potentially toxic elements in Czech farmland

Original language description

For efficient decision-making and optimal land management trajectories, information on soil properties in relation to safety guidelines should be processed from point inventories to surface predictive maps. For largescale predictive mapping, very few practical implementations have attempted to clarify how well indicator models can be built from large covariate sets combined with spatial proxies. This paper summarizes the performance of the weighted indicator-based random forest model which was used to predict exceedance probabilities for several potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in Czech farmland. The method was implemented for data mining in the Czech high-density monitoring data which had to be firstly regressed to achieve analytical harmony, and the reliability of the regression-based harmonisation was used as the input weights for the final model. The indicator-based models were trained for each PTE (As, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn) with two different sets of indicators, reflecting the two-tier nature of the Czech safety guidelines, which differentiate between soil textures of topsoil. The two separate predictive outputs are combined into a single probability map using a pragmatic meta-model of linear weights derived from a soil texture map generated by a compositional spatial model. Through validation with data splitting, the accuracy of the models showed relatively high predictive power for the probability distributions, but with pronounced differences between PTEs as the root mean square error in terms of exceedance probabilities ranged from 11 % (V) to 32 % (Cd and Cr) for independent validation. In addition, models based on high-resolution auxiliary variables allowed a meaningful and quantitative identification of the most important natural and anthropogenic drivers for areas with an increased rate of non-compliance with the protection thresholds for cultivated soils. Variable importance calculations showed the dominant influence of spatially explicit covariates (represented by geographical distances to quantile-based groups of points), but still significant contributions from other predictors. Among the natural factors, lithological information came to the fore, mainly due to continuous response variables such as mineral exploration density or geophysical ancillary variables (from remotely sensed gravimetry and radiometry). Among anthropogenic factors, particulate matter in the atmosphere was identified as the most important human-related pressure, followed by several land-use effects.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

40104 - Soil science

Project

<a href="/en/project/SS03010364" target="_blank" >SS03010364: Soil evaluation decision support system for soil quality with special reference to contents of risky substances in agricultural soils in the Czech Republic</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

ISSN

0301-4797

e-ISSN

1095-8630

Volume of the periodical

380

Issue of the periodical within the volume

April 2025

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

23

Pages from-to

125035

UT code for WoS article

001455681900001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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