Predictive Maps for the Species Heracleum mantegazzianum for the periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070 in central Europe.

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00100595%3A_____%2F25%3AN0000062" target="_blank" >RIV/00100595:_____/25:N0000062 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://reference-global.com/article/10.2478/cszma-2025-0008" target="_blank" >https://reference-global.com/article/10.2478/cszma-2025-0008</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/cszma-2025-0008" target="_blank" >10.2478/cszma-2025-0008</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Predictive Maps for the Species Heracleum mantegazzianum for the periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070 in central Europe.

Original language description

This study applies MaxEnt modeling to predict the future distribution of the invasive plant Heracleum mantegazzianum in Central Europe (mainly the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Germany, and Poland) for two time periods, 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. A baseline model was also developed for the historical period 1980–2010 to serve as a reference for comparison with future projections. High-resolution CHELSA bioclimatic variables were combined with occurrence records from the Species Occurrence Database (NDOP) of the Nature Conservation Agency of the Czech Republic (AOPK ČR) and from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), an international open access database of biodiversity records, to create species distribution models. The models achieved fair to good predictive performance and revealed clear spatial shifts between the historical baseline (1980–2010) and future projections for 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. Areas with high habitat suitability are expected to expand into regions that were only moderately suitable in the past, with southern and western Germany showing the most pronounced increases. Differences between low emission (SSP126) and high emission (SSP585) climate scenarios were limited, suggesting that the species occupies a relatively stable climatic niche. Environmental novelty analyses identified regions of increasing uncertainty due to emerging climatic conditions, highlighting the need for cautious interpretation of projections for 2041–2070. These results highlight priority areas for monitoring and management and demonstrate how climate change may drive the future spread of this invasive species.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_ost - Miscellaneous article in a specialist periodical

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10611 - Plant sciences, botany

Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Acta Musei Silesiae, Scientiae Naturales

ISSN

2336-3193

e-ISSN

2336-3207

Volume of the periodical

74

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

14

Pages from-to

124-137

UT code for WoS article

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EID of the result in the Scopus database

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