Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F24%3A00602201" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/24:00602201 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/00216208:11310/24:10488356

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-76524-5" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-76524-5</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76524-5" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41598-024-76524-5</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable

Original language description

Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901-1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980-2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980-2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901-1950, with real data in the 1980-2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.

Czech name

—

Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10619 - Biodiversity conservation

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Scientific Reports

ISSN

2045-2322

e-ISSN

2045-2322

Volume of the periodical

14

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

25778

UT code for WoS article

001345716800130

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85208082449