Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F11%3A10100427" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/11:10100427 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/26138077:_____/11:#0000201
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.03.001" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.03.001</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.03.001" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.03.001</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe
Original language description
This paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. We construct monetary indicators similar to those the European Central Bank regularly uses for monetary analysis. We find in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that central banks typically focus on, but our pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise shows that money does not in general improve the inflation forecasts vis-a-vis some benchmark models such as the autoregressive process. Since at least some models containing money improve the inflation forecasts in certain periods, we argue that money still serves as a useful cross-check for monetary policy analysis.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GAP402%2F11%2F1487" target="_blank" >GAP402/11/1487: Monetary policy, financial stability and financial crisis</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2011
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Economic Systems
ISSN
0939-3625
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
35
Issue of the periodical within the volume
4
Country of publishing house
NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Number of pages
14
Pages from-to
523-536
UT code for WoS article
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EID of the result in the Scopus database
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