Inflation Forecasting and Targeting: Experience from Central Europe
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F04274644%3A_____%2F21%3A%230000790" target="_blank" >RIV/04274644:_____/21:#0000790 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/statistika-statistics-and-economy-journal-ptl91ua1gm" target="_blank" >https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/statistika-statistics-and-economy-journal-ptl91ua1gm</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Inflation Forecasting and Targeting: Experience from Central Europe
Original language description
This paper deals with inflation forecasting and targeting performance of selected Central and Eastern-European central banks. Using battery of absolute and scaled forecasting errors along with significance tests, we have evaluated inflation predictions on the optimal monetary policy transmission horizon (14–16 months), as well as adherence to long-term inflation targets. Out of the evaluated Czech, Hungarian and Polish central banks, complemented by the European Central Bank for comparison, it was found, that even though the bank´s performance improved during the last decade, notably with the forecasting component, some issues are still present. These are mostly connected to the inflation targeting mechanism, which was found to contain systemic bias in the case of the Czech national bank, as well as failing in comparison with the naïve benchmark in the case of the European Central Bank. Both outcomes pave the way for further investigation in a wider economical context.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50200 - Economics and Business
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal
ISSN
0322-788X
e-ISSN
1804-8765
Volume of the periodical
101
Issue of the periodical within the volume
3
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
9
Pages from-to
259-267
UT code for WoS article
000697713500002
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85119440615