Forecasting tourist arrivals: Google Trends meets mixed-frequency data
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F21%3A10398967" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/21:10398967 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/61384399:31120/21:00054383
Result on the web
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=4T2bq00Q0h" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=4T2bq00Q0h</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354816619879584" target="_blank" >10.1177/1354816619879584</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Forecasting tourist arrivals: Google Trends meets mixed-frequency data
Original language description
n this article, we examine the usefulness of Google Trends data in predicting monthly tourist arrivals and overnight stays in Prague during the period between January 2010 and December 2016. We offer two contributions. First, we analyze whether Google Trends provides significant forecasting improvements over models without search data. Second, we assess whether a high-frequency variable (weekly Google Trends) is more useful for accurate forecasting than a low-frequency variable (monthly tourist arrivals) using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS). Our results suggest the potential of Google Trends to offer more accurate predictions in the context of tourism: we find that Google Trends information, both 2 months and 1 week ahead of arrivals, is useful for predicting the actual number of tourist arrivals. The MIDAS forecasting model employing weekly Google Trends data outperforms models using monthly Google Trends data and models without Google Trends data.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50201 - Economic Theory
Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GX19-26812X" target="_blank" >GX19-26812X: Frontiers in Energy Efficiency Economics and Modelling - FE3M</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Tourism Economics
ISSN
1354-8166
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
27
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
20
Pages from-to
129-148
UT code for WoS article
000490106000001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85074075455