Constructing Prediction Regions for Exchange Rate Path Forecasts: The Potential of Calibration

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F24%3A10492744" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/24:10492744 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=zPjjNjlZfi" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=zPjjNjlZfi</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.32065/CJEF.2024.04.03" target="_blank" >10.32065/CJEF.2024.04.03</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Constructing Prediction Regions for Exchange Rate Path Forecasts: The Potential of Calibration

Original language description

We examine and compare the performance of two novel competing approaches- simultaneous prediction regions and bootstrap joint prediction regions- in constructing uncertainty bands for the consensus path forecasts of the EUR/USD exchange rate. The prediction regions are constructed using actual out-of-sample path-forecast errors computed based on historical EUR/USD exchange rate data. We also explore the potential to improve the simultaneous prediction regions by applying the calibration principle. We use the family-wise prediction error rate to measure the joint accuracy of individual per-period intervals, and the likelihood ratio tests for interval accuracy to assess the conditional coverages. We find that the bootstrap joint prediction regions outperform the simultaneous prediction regions on a small evaluation sample. While calibration can improve the performance of simultaneous prediction regions, additional robustness exercises reveal that bootstrap joint prediction regions are generally more reliable from the perspective of unconditional coverage. On the other hand, neither method properly accounts for the dependence in the EUR/USD exchange rate path forecasts.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50201 - Economic Theory

Project

—

Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Finance a úvěr

ISSN

0015-1920

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

74

Issue of the periodical within the volume

4

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

41

Pages from-to

432-472

UT code for WoS article

001339998500003

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85208413365