Late stages of initial errors growth in weather prediction with use of low-dimensional atmospheric model

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F12%3A10132629" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/12:10132629 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://www.mff.cuni.cz/veda/konference/wds/proc/proc-contents.php?year=2012" target="_blank" >http://www.mff.cuni.cz/veda/konference/wds/proc/proc-contents.php?year=2012</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Late stages of initial errors growth in weather prediction with use of low-dimensional atmospheric model
Original language description
The growth of small errors in weather prediction is exponential. As an error becomes larger, the growth rate should diminish. Finally, all systematic growth should stop, and the magnitude of the error should oscillate about a value equal to the magnitudeof the distance between two states chosen randomly. The aim of this paper is study of error growth in low-dimensional atmospheric model after the initial exponential divergence died away. For this purpose we test several hypotheses (cubic, quartic, logarithmic) by ensemble prediction method. Also quadratic hypothesis that was introduced by Lorenz in 1969 is compared with the ensemble prediction method. The study shows that a small error growth is best modeled by quadratic hypothesis. After the initialerror exceed a half of average value of variables than logarithmic approximation is better.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2012
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection
WDS'12 Proceedings of Contributed Papers, Part III
ISBN
978-80-7378-226-9
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
6
Pages from-to
82-87
Publisher name
Matfyzpress
Place of publication
Praha
Event location
Praha
Event date
May 29, 2012
Type of event by nationality
EUR - Evropská akce
UT code for WoS article
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