Initial Error Growth and Predictability of Chaotic Low-dimensional Atmospheric Model

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F14%3A10292083" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/14:10292083 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11633-014-0788-3" target="_blank" >http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11633-014-0788-3</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11633-014-0788-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s11633-014-0788-3</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Initial Error Growth and Predictability of Chaotic Low-dimensional Atmospheric Model

Original language description

The growth of small errors in weather prediction is exponential on average. As an error becomes larger, its growth slows down and then stops with the magnitude of the error saturating at about the average distance between two states chosen randomly. Thispaper studies the error growth in a low-dimensional atmospheric model before, during and after the initial exponential divergence occurs. We test cubic, quartic and logarithmic hypotheses by ensemble prediction method. Furthermore, the quadratic hypothesis suggested by Lorenz in 1969 is compared with the ensemble prediction method. The study shows that a small error growth is best modeled by the quadratic hypothesis. After the error exceeds about a half of the average value of variables, logarithmic approximation becomes superior. It is also shown that the time length of the exponential growth in the model data is a function of the size of small initial error and the largest Lyapunov exponent. We conclude that the size of the error at

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

IN - Informatics

OECD FORD branch

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Project

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Continuities

Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2014

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

International Journal of Automation and Computing

ISSN

1476-8186

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

11

Issue of the periodical within the volume

3

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

9

Pages from-to

256-264

UT code for WoS article

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EID of the result in the Scopus database

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