Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F16%3A10334393" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/16:10334393 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01418" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01418</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01418" target="_blank" >10.3354/cr01418</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections

Original language description

Climate classifications can provide an effective tool for integrated assessment of climate model results. We present an analysis of future global climate projections performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project by means of Koppen-Trewartha classification. Maps of future climate type distributions were created along with the analysis of the ensemble spread. The simulations under scenarios with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 showed a substantial decline in ice cap, tundra, and boreal climate in the warming world, accompanied by an expansion of temperate climates, dry climates, and savanna, nearly unanimous within the CMIP5 ensemble. Results for the subtropical climate types were generally not conclusive. Changes in climate zones were also analyzed in comparison with the individual model performance for the historical period 1961-1990. The magnitude of change was higher than model errors only for tundra, boreal, and temperate continental climate types. For other types, the response was mostly smaller than model error, or there was considerable disagreement among the ensemble members. Altogether, around 14% of the continental area is expected to change climate types by the end of the 21st century under the projected RCP4.5 forcing and 20% under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

DG - Atmospheric sciences, meteorology

OECD FORD branch

—

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2016

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Climate Research

ISSN

0936-577X

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

71

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

17-31

UT code for WoS article

000390103000002

EID of the result in the Scopus database

—