Adverse weather conditions for UK wheat production under climate change

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43210%2F20%3A43917803" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43210/20:43917803 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/86652079:_____/20:00524419

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107862" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107862</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107862" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107862</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Adverse weather conditions for UK wheat production under climate change

Original language description

Winter wheat is an important crop in the UK, suited to the typical weather conditions in the current climate. In a changing climate the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events, which are often localised, are considered a major threat to wheat production. In the present study we assessed a range of adverse weather conditions, which can significantly affect yield, under current and future climates based on adverse weather indices. We analysed changes in the frequency, magnitude and spatial patterns of 10 adverse weather indices, at 25 sites across the UK, using climate scenarios from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production, with most adverse weather indicators reducing in magnitude by the mid-21st century. Hotter and drier summers would improve sowing and harvesting conditions and reduce the risk of lodging. The probability of late frosts and heat stress during reproductive and grain filling periods would likely remain small in 2050. Wetter winter and spring could cause issues with waterlogging. The severity of drought stress during reproduction would generally be lower in 2050, however localised differences suggest it is important to examine drought at a small spatial scale. Prolonged water stress does not increase considerably in the UK, as may be expected in other parts of Europe. Climate projections based on the CMIP5 ensemble reveal considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of adverse weather conditions including waterlogging, drought and water stress. The variation in adverse weather conditions due to GCMs was generally greater than between emissions scenarios. Accordingly, CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of GCMs may not provide.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

40106 - Agronomy, plant breeding and plant protection; (Agricultural biotechnology to be 4.4)

Project

<a href="/en/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2020

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

ISSN

0168-1923

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

282-283

Issue of the periodical within the volume

15 March

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

13

Pages from-to

107862

UT code for WoS article

000525813300007

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85076681338