Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F22%3A10453410" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/22:10453410 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=Xpk2iZXcbz" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=Xpk2iZXcbz</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05341-8" target="_blank" >10.1007/s11069-022-05341-8</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models
Original language description
The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This study uses the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data to investigate projected changes in drought events over East Africa (EA) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-4.0, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 data are bias-corrected using a quantile mapping method, with the Climatic Research Unit's precipitation dataset as reference. Drought is quantified using the standardized precipitation index and different measures of drought are estimated: drought duration, drought frequency, drought severity, and drought intensity. Evaluating the accuracy and reliability of historical data before and after bias correction demonstrates the importance of the approach. The overall distribution after bias correction depicts a close agreement with observation. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean demonstrate superiority over individual Global Circulation Models. Projected future changes show enhancement in precipitation over most parts of EA in the far future under different SSP scenarios. However, the arid and semi-arid regions are expected to receive less amount of precipitation, whereas the highlands and lake regions are expected to receive a larger amount of precipitation increase. Furthermore, the dry areas of EA are likely to experience more frequent drought events with longer duration, stronger intensity, and severity in the far future. Overall, this study identifies possible drought hotspots over EA, enabling early preparation for such events.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2022
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Natural Hazards
ISSN
0921-030X
e-ISSN
1573-0840
Volume of the periodical
113
Issue of the periodical within the volume
2
Country of publishing house
US - UNITED STATES
Number of pages
26
Pages from-to
1151-1176
UT code for WoS article
000781230100002
EID of the result in the Scopus database
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