Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F24%3A100839" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/24:100839 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004053" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004053</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004053" target="_blank" >10.1029/2023EF004053</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Original language description

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with global warming, posing significant challenges to both human and natural environments. Despite the importance of such assessments, they are unevenly widespread across the globe. Here, using bias corrected climate simulations of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we provide a comprehensive assessment on how different rainfall events are expected to change across Brazil. Specifically, (a) we explored the projected changes in both intensity and frequency of rainfall events belonging to the right-tail of the rainfall distribution using a non-parametric approach, and (b) quantified how rainfall events associate with different return periods are expected to intensify, using a parametric approach. We found that extreme rainfall events will become more frequent and intense by the end of the century, with averaged projected changes for rainfall exceeding the historical rainfall quantile q0.99 of nearly 100% and 10% on frequency and intensity, respectively. Non-extreme rainfall events, in contrast, are expected to be less frequent, aligning with the compensation hypothesis. For instance, Brazilian 100-year rainfall are anticipated to intensify, on average, 17% and 31% under the moderate and the highest CMIP6 emission scenarios, respectively. Finally, our findings suggest that frequency, rather than intensity, dictates the projected changes of rainfall. We believe that the evidence gathered here will certainly contribute to not only an improved understanding of Brazilian rainfall events but also to a better comprehension of the different rainfall properties, their interplay and how the different ways of assessing them may affect climate studies.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10500 - Earth and related environmental sciences

Project

—

Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Earths Future

ISSN

2328-4277

e-ISSN

2328-4277

Volume of the periodical

12

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

1-15

UT code for WoS article

001148489500001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85183676044