Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F21%3A00119463" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/21:00119463 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/67985939:_____/21:00547332 RIV/00216208:11310/21:10440314

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378" target="_blank" >10.1111/ddi.13378</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species

Original language description

Aims The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location Global. Methods We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species' potential alien ranges. Results We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10619 - Biodiversity conservation

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2021

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Diversity and Distributions

ISSN

1366-9516

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

27

Issue of the periodical within the volume

11

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

14

Pages from-to

2063-2076

UT code for WoS article

000678816800001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85111321532