Plant invasion in Mediterranean Europe: current hotspots and future scenarios

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F24%3A00139423" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/24:00139423 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/60460709:41330/24:101032

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07085" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07085</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07085" target="_blank" >10.1111/ecog.07085</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Plant invasion in Mediterranean Europe: current hotspots and future scenarios

Original language description

The Mediterranean Basin has historically been subject to alien plant invasions that threaten its unique biodiversity. This seasonally dry and densely populated region is undergoing severe climatic and socioeconomic changes, and it is unclear whether these changes will worsen or mitigate plant invasions. Predictions are often biased, as species may not be in equilibrium in the invaded environment, depending on their invasion stage and ecological characteristics. To address future predictions uncertainty, we identified invasion hotspots across multiple biased modelling scenarios and ecological characteristics of successful invaders. We selected 92 alien plant species widespread in Mediterranean Europe and compiled data on their distribution in the Mediterranean and worldwide. We combined these data with environmental and propagule pressure variables to model global and regional species niches, and map their current and future habitat suitability. We identified invasion hotspots, examined their potential future shifts, and compared the results of different modelling strategies. Finally, we generalised our findings by using linear models to determine the traits and biogeographic features of invaders most likely to benefit from global change. Currently, invasion hotspots are found near ports and coastlines throughout Mediterranean Europe. However, many species occupy only a small portion of the environmental conditions to which they are preadapted, suggesting that their invasion is still an ongoing process. Future conditions will lead to declines in many currently widespread aliens, which will tend to move to higher elevations and latitudes. Our trait models indicate that future climates will generally favour species with conservative ecological strategies that can cope with reduced water availability, such as those with short stature and low specific leaf area. Taken together, our results suggest that in future environments, these conservative aliens will move farther from the introduction areas and upslope, threatening mountain ecosystems that have been spared from invasions so far.

Czech name

—

Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10619 - Biodiversity conservation

Project

<a href="/en/project/GX19-28491X" target="_blank" >GX19-28491X: Centre for European Vegetation Syntheses (CEVS)</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Ecography

ISSN

0906-7590

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

2024

Issue of the periodical within the volume

5

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

14

Pages from-to

„e07085“

UT code for WoS article

001178064700001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85186404317