The Utilization of Sovereign Bond Spreads: The Case of V4 Countries

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F14%3A00076113" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/14:00076113 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
—
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
—

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
The Utilization of Sovereign Bond Spreads: The Case of V4 Countries
Original language description
The yield curve ? specifically the spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow real growth the near term. This paper aims to analyze the dependence between slope of the yield curve and an economic activity of V4 countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) between the years 2000 and 2013. The slope of the yield curve can be measured as the yield spread between sovereign 10-yearbonds and sovereign 3-month bonds. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is by GDP growth, taken quarterly. The results showed that the best predictive lags differ in each country and each time span we chos
Czech name
—
Czech description
—

Publication year
2014
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection
Proceedings of the 11th International Scientific Conference European Financial Systems 2014
ISBN
9788021071537
ISSN
—
e-ISSN
—
Number of pages
6
Pages from-to
266-271
Publisher name
Masaryk University
Place of publication
Brno
Event location
Lednice
Event date
Jan 1, 2014
Type of event by nationality
EUR - Evropská akce
UT code for WoS article
000350701500035

Similar results(10)