Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best?

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F16%3A00091065" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/16:00091065 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
—
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
—

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best?
Original language description
The spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real economic growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. One question remains – which spread is the best for the future prediction? Is it the spread between sovereign 10-year bonds and 3-month bonds or 15-year and 3- month or 10-year and 1-year sovereign bonds? This paper aimed to analyze which spread is the most suitable for predicting of future economic growth in countries of V4 (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) between the years 2000 and 2015. We proved that in these selected countries the best spread is a spread of 5-year and 3-month government bonds. The second best spread is spread of 5-year and 1-year government bonds.
Czech name
—
Czech description
—

Publication year
2016
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection
Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on European Integration 2016
ISBN
9788024839110
ISSN
—
e-ISSN
—
Number of pages
7
Pages from-to
376-382
Publisher name
VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava
Place of publication
Ostrava
Event location
Ostrava
Event date
Jan 1, 2016
Type of event by nationality
EUR - Evropská akce
UT code for WoS article
—

Similar results(10)