The spillover effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: labor response in a neighboring economy
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F25%3A00140316" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/25:00140316 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1060586X.2025.2515808" target="_blank" >https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1060586X.2025.2515808</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2025.2515808" target="_blank" >10.1080/1060586X.2025.2515808</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
The spillover effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: labor response in a neighboring economy
Original language description
This paper examines the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on employment in Kazakhstan due to an influx of migrants. Using a Synthetic Control Method (SCM), our study reveals a varying effect on Kazakhstan’s employment following the invasion. We find a notable effect on employment in treated cities with regional variation. We also find the heterogeneous impact of forced migration across different demographic characteristics and report that young males and males with vocational education are the most vulnerable group, which aligns with expectations based on the nature of the shock and the aggregate composition of migrant flows. Our findings highlight that ongoing uncertainty and evolving geopolitics can have lasting consequences on Kazakhstan’s labor market. This research contributes to the understanding of labor market effects in emerging economies amidst (semi-)forced migration. The historical, cultural, and economic ties between Russia and Kazakhstan, coupled with their shared membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, present a distinctive context. Our research highlights the necessity of ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies to mitigate the long-term impacts.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Post-Soviet Affairs
ISSN
1060-586X
e-ISSN
1938-2855
Volume of the periodical
41
Issue of the periodical within the volume
4
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
37
Pages from-to
311-347
UT code for WoS article
001509611900001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-105008438515