Possibilities and Limitations of Quantitative Methods in Short-Term Demand Forecasting in a Manufacturing Company

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216275%3A25310%2F15%3A39900261" target="_blank" >RIV/00216275:25310/15:39900261 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Possibilities and Limitations of Quantitative Methods in Short-Term Demand Forecasting in a Manufacturing Company

Original language description

Demand forecasting plays an irreplaceable role in management of logistics processes in manufacturing companies, where the accuracy of arising forecasts has a direct impact on the effectiveness of these processes. When forecasting the demand, it is possible to choose from a wide range of forecasting methods. Quantitative methods based on the analysis of sales time series have been most widely used in practice thanks to the facts that they do not place high demands on time and finances, they are not very laborious, and that they are highly objective compared to qualitative forecasting methods. The possibilities of application of quantitative methods were the subject matter of the research performed in the company PK Ham, s.r.o., doing business on the Czech market in the area of production and distribution of meat and smoked meat products. The needed structure of forecasts was identified on the basis of in-depth interviews conducted with the company employees. Furthermore, the research team analysed the sales time series in all the company products in 2011-2014 and analysed the accuracy of eight forecasting methods on three sales aggregation levels. On the basis of the outcomes of partial analyses, the paper discusses the application possibilities and limitations of selected quantitative methods in short-term demand forecasting in the monitored company.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

D - Article in proceedings

CEP classification

BB - Applied statistics, operational research

OECD FORD branch

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Project

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Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2015

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection

CLC 2015: Carpathian Logistics Congress: Congress Proceedings

ISBN

978-80-87294-64-2

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Number of pages

6

Pages from-to

432-437

Publisher name

TANGER, spol. s r.o.

Place of publication

Ostrava

Event location

Jeseník

Event date

Nov 4, 2015

Type of event by nationality

EUR - Evropská akce

UT code for WoS article

000387950100066