Heuristic methodology for forecasting of quantities in waste management
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26210%2F17%3APU124850" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26210/17:PU124850 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13164/mendel.2017.1.185" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.13164/mendel.2017.1.185</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13164/mendel.2017.1.185" target="_blank" >10.13164/mendel.2017.1.185</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Heuristic methodology for forecasting of quantities in waste management
Original language description
The forecast of waste production and disposal is an important requirement for a future waste management planning. The problem is very often a short time series of the database. This paper suggests an approach to forecast the production of multiple waste types in micro-regions taking into account this challenge by combining many techniques. The heuristic methodology consisting of few steps is formulated. First, the input data are transformed and the methods from cluster analysis are repetitively applied. The second step is about a determination of quality for trend functions based on historical data. In the last step is performed the testing. The different type of representatives from cluster analysis is used to calculate indices of determination which are compared. This procedure is repeated until the criteria hit. The proposed approach reduced the computational time and managed to aggregate micro-regions with a similar trend. The forecast should have contributions in terms of building new facilities or adaptations to the existing ones, where it is necessary to estimate the production of waste for several years in advance. The article includes a case study of production forecast for several waste types in territorial units of the Czech Republic. The forecast is based on data in years 2009--2014 and following year 2015 was used to assess the quality of the final models. In the future, the database will expand and thus it will be possible to make more precise estimates and to develop statistical methods to measure this prognostic tool.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>SC</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the SCOPUS database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10103 - Statistics and probability
Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/EF15_003%2F0000456" target="_blank" >EF15_003/0000456: Sustainable Process Integration Laboratory (SPIL)</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2017
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Mendel Journal series
ISSN
1803-3814
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
2017
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
8
Pages from-to
185-192
UT code for WoS article
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EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85042253341