Complex biofuels related scenarios generated by qualitative reasoning under severe information shortages: A review

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F16%3APU120247" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/16:PU120247 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116303574" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116303574</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.07.029" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.rser.2016.07.029</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Complex biofuels related scenarios generated by qualitative reasoning under severe information shortages: A review

Original language description

There is a broad spectrum of BR (Biofuel Related) models. However the models are highly specific. Such models cannot flexibly support complex decision making activities to identify feasible trade-offs among many objective functions. They represent just one point of view; e.g. engineering, company economics. Therefore CBRMs (Complex Biofuel Related Model) are studied in this paper. CBRMs must cover additional aspects, e.g. macroeconomic, ecology, sociology and politics. Such models are inevitably unique, partially subjective, inconsistent, vague and multidimensional. AI (Artificial Intelligence) has developed a number of tools to solve such problems. Qualitative reasoning is one of them. It is based on the least information intensive quantifiers i.e. trends. There are just three trend / qualitative values: plus/increasing; zero/constant; negative/decreasing. There are many CBRM items related to soft aspects e.g. politics, taxation etc. which cannot be quantified by numbers. They are too vague. For example – if the political/sociological sensitivity of land ownership is increasing then the cost of biofuels is increasing. Such verbal knowledge item cannot be incorporated into a traditional numerical model. The paper describes developments of CBRMs based on expert knowledge and common sense. A consensus among experts is often not reached because of substantial subjectivity of experts’ knowledge. A qualitative intersection of CBRMs developed by several experts is simple. The case study presents a model based on integration of 10 heuristics using 9 variables e.g. Refinery Capacity, Cost of Biofuel Production, and Biofuel Demand. The result is represented by 13 scenarios. The paper is self-contained, no a prior knowledge of qualitative models is required.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50602 - Public administration

Project

—

Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2016

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS

ISSN

1364-0321

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

65

Issue of the periodical within the volume

11

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

9

Pages from-to

677-684

UT code for WoS article

000383293800049

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-84989837130