Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F23%3APU149001" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/23:PU149001 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/75081431:_____/23:00002605
Result on the web
<a href="https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php" target="_blank" >https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON" target="_blank" >10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets
Original language description
Phosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship between these commodities and to follow their future development closely. The article aims to identify a correlation (Kendall's tau) and causal (Granger causality test) between the price of Moroccan phosphate and wheat, applying vector autoregression (VAR). The results show a medium-to-strong correlation between phosphate and wheat, while causal analysis suggests a reciprocal relationship. The final prediction indicates the price stability of Moroccan phosphate and a fall in wheat prices, showing steady trends of the Moroccan phosphate and wheat market affected by the alarming situation in Ukraine. The article's drawbacks are a narrow market specialisation, which ignores other agricultural commodities. Our findings contribute to national officeholders and professional public, private and non-profit agrarian organisations. Investors may benefit from exploring turbulent exogenous variables like a critical geopolitical deadlock in Ukraine. The main contribution highlights the fact that the conventional fertiliser and wheat market situation appears to be stable and free from elements of uncertainty.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50200 - Economics and Business
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2023
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika
ISSN
0139-570X
e-ISSN
1805-9295
Volume of the periodical
69
Issue of the periodical within the volume
8
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
8
Pages from-to
301-308
UT code for WoS article
001041022400001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85169423391