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Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

The result's identifiers

  • Result code in IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F23%3APU149001" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/23:PU149001 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Alternative codes found

    RIV/75081431:_____/23:00002605

  • Result on the web

    <a href="https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php" target="_blank" >https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON" target="_blank" >10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON</a>

Alternative languages

  • Result language

    angličtina

  • Original language name

    Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

  • Original language description

    Phosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship between these commodities and to follow their future development closely. The article aims to identify a correlation (Kendall's tau) and causal (Granger causality test) between the price of Moroccan phosphate and wheat, applying vector autoregression (VAR). The results show a medium-to-strong correlation between phosphate and wheat, while causal analysis suggests a reciprocal relationship. The final prediction indicates the price stability of Moroccan phosphate and a fall in wheat prices, showing steady trends of the Moroccan phosphate and wheat market affected by the alarming situation in Ukraine. The article's drawbacks are a narrow market specialisation, which ignores other agricultural commodities. Our findings contribute to national officeholders and professional public, private and non-profit agrarian organisations. Investors may benefit from exploring turbulent exogenous variables like a critical geopolitical deadlock in Ukraine. The main contribution highlights the fact that the conventional fertiliser and wheat market situation appears to be stable and free from elements of uncertainty.

  • Czech name

  • Czech description

Classification

  • Type

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

  • CEP classification

  • OECD FORD branch

    50200 - Economics and Business

Result continuities

  • Project

  • Continuities

    S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Others

  • Publication year

    2023

  • Confidentiality

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Data specific for result type

  • Name of the periodical

    Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika

  • ISSN

    0139-570X

  • e-ISSN

    1805-9295

  • Volume of the periodical

    69

  • Issue of the periodical within the volume

    8

  • Country of publishing house

    CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

  • Number of pages

    8

  • Pages from-to

    301-308

  • UT code for WoS article

    001041022400001

  • EID of the result in the Scopus database

    2-s2.0-85169423391