Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F75081431%3A_____%2F23%3A00002562" target="_blank" >RIV/75081431:_____/23:00002562 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/19" target="_blank" >https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/19</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil

Original language description

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 accelerated agricultural commodity prices and raised food insecurities worldwide. Ukraine and Russia are the leading global suppliers of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil. For this purpose, we investigated the relationship among these four agricultural commodities and, at the same time, predicted their future performance. The series covers the period from 1 January 1990 to 1 August 2022, based on monthly frequencies. The VAR impulse response function, variance decomposition, Granger Causality Test and vector error correction model were used to analyze relationships between variables. The results indicate that corn prices are an integral part of price changes in wheat, barley and sunflower oil. Wheat prices are also essential but with a weaker influence than that of corn. The additional purpose of this study was to forecast their price changes ten months ahead. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VECM) fanchart estimates an average price decline in corn, wheat, barley and sunflower oil in the range of 10%. From a policy perspective, the findings provide reliable signals for countries exposed to food insecurities and inflationary risk. Recognizing the limitations that predictions maintain, the results provide modest signals for relevant agencies, international regulatory authorities, retailers and low-income countries. Moreover, stakeholders can become informed about their price behavior and the causal relationship they hold with each other.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50200 - Economics and Business

Project

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Continuities

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Forecasting

ISSN

2571-9394

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

5

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

CH - SWITZERLAND

Number of pages

23

Pages from-to

351-373

UT code for WoS article

000956692200001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85150988723