Surface water change of a small lake in Central Asia and climatic factors: A dynamic linear model analysis
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F19194951%3A_____%2F24%3AN0000014" target="_blank" >RIV/19194951:_____/24:N0000014 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/7229" target="_blank" >https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/7229</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.24294/jipd7229" target="_blank" >10.24294/jipd7229</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Surface water change of a small lake in Central Asia and climatic factors: A dynamic linear model analysis
Original language description
The area of lake surface water is shrinking rapidly in Central Asia. We explore anthropogenic and climate factors driving this trend in Shalkar Lake, located in the Aral Sea region in Kazakhstan, Central Asia. We employ the Landsat satellite archive to map interannual changes in surface water between 1986 and 2021. The high temporal resolution of our dataset allows us to analyze the water surface data to investigate the time series of surface water change, economic and agricultural activities, and climate drivers like precipitation, evaporation, and air temperature. Toward this end, we utilize dynamic linear models (DLM). Our findings suggest that the shrinking of Shalkar Lake does not exhibit a systemic trend that could be associated with climate factors. Our empirical analysis, adopted to address local conditions, reveals that water reduction in the area is related to human interventions, particularly agricultural activities during the research period. On the other hand, the retrospectively fitted values indicate a semi-regular periodicity despite anthropogenic factors. Our results demonstrate that climate factors still play an essential role and should not be disregarded. Additionally, considering long-term climate projections in environmental impact assessment is crucial. The projected increase in temperatures and the corresponding decline in lake size highlight the need for proactive measures in managing water resources under changing climatic conditions.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>ost</sub> - Miscellaneous article in a specialist periodical
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
N - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z neverejnych zdroju
Others
Publication year
2024
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development
ISSN
2572-7923
e-ISSN
2572-7931
Volume of the periodical
8
Issue of the periodical within the volume
15
Country of publishing house
US - UNITED STATES
Number of pages
23
Pages from-to
1-23
UT code for WoS article
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EID of the result in the Scopus database
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