Assessment of climate change on river streamflow under different representative concentration pathways
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F46747885%3A24620%2F24%3A00012425" target="_blank" >RIV/46747885:24620/24:00012425 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479724017407" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479724017407</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121754" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121754</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Assessment of climate change on river streamflow under different representative concentration pathways
Original language description
Climate change and excessive greenhouse gas emissions profoundly impact hydrological cycles, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, necessitating assessments of their effects on water resource management, agriculture, soil fertility, nutrient transport, hydropower generation, and flood risk. This study investigates climate change repercussions on streamflow in the Zarrineh River Basin, Iran, across three decadal intervals (2020–2029, 2055–2064, and 2090–2099) aiming to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs), chosen based on distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) determined by the annual mean temperature gradient, are employed. These models generate daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures along with precipitation data. Subsequently, these variables are integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze river flow alterations for each decadal timeframe. Comparison between future projections and observed climate data reveals a gradual decline in precipitation and Tmax, coupled with a substantial increase in Tmin. The average precipitation diminishes from 0.77 mm in the period 1985–1994 to a range of 0.42–0.28 mm in 2090–2099. The simulated flow at the basin outlet highlights that the GCM with the highest annual mean temperature gradient yields the lowest streamflow, while conversely, the model with the lowest gradient generates the highest. Consequently, streamflow experiences a decline from 52 m3/s in 1985–1994 to a range of 41–20 m3/s in 2090–2099.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2024
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Journal of environmental management
ISSN
0301-4797
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
336
Issue of the periodical within the volume
August
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
12
Pages from-to
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UT code for WoS article
001325514900001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85197798047