Estimation of the J-curve Effect in the Bilateral Trade of Hungary

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F47813059%3A19520%2F13%3A%230002267" target="_blank" >RIV/47813059:19520/13:#0002267 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://www.ekf.vsb.cz/cerei/cs/cisla/vol16num3/content/" target="_blank" >http://www.ekf.vsb.cz/cerei/cs/cisla/vol16num3/content/</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Estimation of the J-curve Effect in the Bilateral Trade of Hungary
Original language description
Resulting in a J-curve pattern, the devaluation or depreciation of a currency worsens the trade balance before improving it. The aim of the paper is to investigate the J-curve effect in bilateral trade flows between Hungary and its major trading partners: Germany, Austria, Italy, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Poland and the Czech Republic. This paper explores the J-curve effect using quarterly data over the period 1997-2012. We include bilateral export and import flows, GDP and nominal bilateral exchange rates in the models. We employ a Johansen cointegration test to analyse the long run relationship between variables. The short run effects and related J-curve effect are explored by estimating an error correction model and by assessing impulse response functions. A typical J-curve effect is detected in bilateral trade flows with the United Kingdom. In trade flows with Austria and Italy, a partial J-curve can be observed. In bilateral trade with the Czech Republic, we exp
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Publication year
2013
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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