European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60076658%3A12310%2F18%3A43898058" target="_blank" >RIV/60076658:12310/18:43898058 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/67985939:_____/18:00495113 RIV/00216208:11310/18:10392245

Result on the web

<a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13197" target="_blank" >https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13197</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13197" target="_blank" >10.1111/1365-2664.13197</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change

Original language description

1. Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. 2. To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalised in Europe. 3. We found that non-European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. 4. Policy implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritisation of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10618 - Ecology

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Journal of Applied Ecology

ISSN

0021-8901

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

55

Issue of the periodical within the volume

5

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

10

Pages from-to

2386-2395

UT code for WoS article

000441438600028

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85050886608