Modification of the Three-point PERT Estimate for Practical Use
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41110%2F11%3A51073" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41110/11:51073 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Modification of the Three-point PERT Estimate for Practical Use
Original language description
The PERT method is widely used as a tool for the estimation of activity duration in project management. At real projects the three-point PERT estimate is often adapted to suit specific requirements and project needs. The peak of the beta distribution ispossible to shift to the left or right and get a different mean estimate of the activity duration. The shift of the distribution peak depends on the human behaviour while working on the task. The paper proposes the modification of the three-point PERT estimate using parameterization of the weighted average. It proposes to shift the beta distribution peak, which is dependent on a human work effort and which is reachable by adjusting the PERT three-point estimate. Such a modification shifts the beta distribution peak where the work effort of an allocated source occurs. We demonstrate how to use a suitable parameterization of the three-point PERT estimate to reduce the risk of violating important project terms and due dates.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
D - Article in proceedings
CEP classification
BB - Applied statistics, operational research
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)
Others
Publication year
2011
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Article name in the collection
29th International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economics 2011
ISBN
978-80-7431-058-4
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
6
Pages from-to
23-28
Publisher name
University of Economics, Prague (Professional Publishing, Mikulova 1572/13, 149 00 Praha 4, Czech Republic)
Place of publication
University of Economics, Prague
Event location
Janská Dolina, Slovakia
Event date
Sep 6, 2011
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
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