Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F18%3A76465" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/18:76465 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts
Original language description
Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land surface models, forced with bias corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts from 1K to 3K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1,5K Paris target, an increase of 3K, which represents current projected temperature change, is found to increase drought area by 40percent (plus minus 24 percent), affecting up to 42percent (plus minus 22percent) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent, thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10501 - Hydrology

Publication year
2018
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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