Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F24%3A98650" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/24:98650 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

Original language description

In 2022, Europe faced an extensive summer drought with severe socioeconomic consequences. Quantifying the influence of human-induced climate change on such an extreme event can help prepare for future droughts. Here, by combining observations and climate model outputs with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that Central and Southern Europe experienced the highest observed total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, probably representing the highest and most widespread soil moisture deficit in the past six decades. While precipitation deficits primarily drove the soil moisture drought, human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation. We identify that 14–41% of the climate change contribution was mediated by the warming-driven drying of the soil that occurred before the hydrological year of 2022, indicating the importance of considering lagged climate change effects to avoid underestimating associated risks. Human-induced climate change had qualitatively similar effects on the extremely low observed river discharges. These results highlight that global warming effects on droughts are already underway, widespread and long lasting, and that drought risk may escalate with further human-induced warming in the future.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10501 - Hydrology

Project

<a href="/en/project/GA23-08056S" target="_blank" >GA23-08056S: Dynamic tracking of drought events and their classification on the global scale - DynamicDrought</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Nature Geoscience

ISSN

1752-0894

e-ISSN

1752-0894

Volume of the periodical

17

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

22

Pages from-to

1-22

UT code for WoS article

001337257700001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85206991357